Bitcoin Capitulation Stretches to Longest Period Since FTX Collapse
Bitcoin is experiencing its longest capitulation phase since the end of the 2022 bear market, according to onchain analytics firm Glassnode.
Glassnode’s Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap, which combines 45 market indicators, has remained in capitulation territory throughout 2026. The tool currently shows the market is deep into a bear cycle, though conditions have not yet reached the extreme levels previously associated with a definitive bottom.
Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft said the market is in its coldest stretch since the collapse of FTX in November 2022, when Bitcoin eventually fell to around $15,600.
The indicators track areas such as market value, investor profitability and the behavior of short- and long-term holders. Glassnode cautioned that some metrics, including coin dormancy, must be interpreted differently as Bitcoin’s investor base matures.
Despite prolonged weakness, Glassnode said onchain activity has recently strengthened, with active addresses and adjusted transfer volumes rising above their normal statistical ranges.
Separately, the Coldcard wallet exploit caused a sharp increase in transactions involving 1 BTC or less. Such transfers reached about 39,600 BTC on July 31, nearly matching the level recorded shortly after the FTX collapse in November 2022. $BTC
Bitcoin is experiencing its longest capitulation phase since the end of the 2022 bear market, according to onchain analytics firm Glassnode.
Glassnode’s Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap, which combines 45 market indicators, has remained in capitulation territory throughout 2026. The tool currently shows the market is deep into a bear cycle, though conditions have not yet reached the extreme levels previously associated with a definitive bottom.
Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft said the market is in its coldest stretch since the collapse of FTX in November 2022, when Bitcoin eventually fell to around $15,600.
The indicators track areas such as market value, investor profitability and the behavior of short- and long-term holders. Glassnode cautioned that some metrics, including coin dormancy, must be interpreted differently as Bitcoin’s investor base matures.
Despite prolonged weakness, Glassnode said onchain activity has recently strengthened, with active addresses and adjusted transfer volumes rising above their normal statistical ranges.
Separately, the Coldcard wallet exploit caused a sharp increase in transactions involving 1 BTC or less. Such transfers reached about 39,600 BTC on July 31, nearly matching the level recorded shortly after the FTX collapse in November 2022. $BTC