Is Bitcoin's bottom already in? Here's the honest answer.
Two capitulation events. Two RSI extremes hitting 26 on the weekly. Two bullish divergences lower price low, higher RSI low. The exact same structural fingerprint that marked the 2022 cycle bottom.
Bitcoin recently bounced from the $56,000–$59,000 region while weekly RSI held above its earlier trough. Sellers pushed price lower without producing a matching low in momentum. That's the textbook definition of bullish divergence.
A horizontal support band near $60,000–$62,000 has held through multiple tests and remains the floor bulls need to defend heading into August.
But here's what's missing and I won't pretend otherwise.
The Pi Cycle Bottom indicator shows the two lines diverged rather than converging no crossover is imminent. Realized price near $53K hasn't been swept. Every prior cycle bottom saw price trade below realized price before confirming. That hasn't happened.
August historically averages a -7.87% median return Bitcoin's worst month across 15 years of data. The Fed held rates hawkishly with a 72% chance of a September hike now priced in.
So here's where I land:
The divergence is real and structurally significant. The missing confirmations are also real. Both can be true simultaneously.
BTC is still below all four major weekly EMAs the $68,800–$80,000 region is resistance, not support.
This isn't the moment for conviction bets in either direction. It's the moment for level-based entries, tight risk management, and patience over prediction.
The bottom might already be in. Or one final flush to $53K awaits.
Either way size matters more than being right.
$ATOM $AAOIB
Two capitulation events. Two RSI extremes hitting 26 on the weekly. Two bullish divergences lower price low, higher RSI low. The exact same structural fingerprint that marked the 2022 cycle bottom.
Bitcoin recently bounced from the $56,000–$59,000 region while weekly RSI held above its earlier trough. Sellers pushed price lower without producing a matching low in momentum. That's the textbook definition of bullish divergence.
A horizontal support band near $60,000–$62,000 has held through multiple tests and remains the floor bulls need to defend heading into August.
But here's what's missing and I won't pretend otherwise.
The Pi Cycle Bottom indicator shows the two lines diverged rather than converging no crossover is imminent. Realized price near $53K hasn't been swept. Every prior cycle bottom saw price trade below realized price before confirming. That hasn't happened.
August historically averages a -7.87% median return Bitcoin's worst month across 15 years of data. The Fed held rates hawkishly with a 72% chance of a September hike now priced in.
So here's where I land:
The divergence is real and structurally significant. The missing confirmations are also real. Both can be true simultaneously.
BTC is still below all four major weekly EMAs the $68,800–$80,000 region is resistance, not support.
This isn't the moment for conviction bets in either direction. It's the moment for level-based entries, tight risk management, and patience over prediction.
The bottom might already be in. Or one final flush to $53K awaits.
Either way size matters more than being right.
$ATOM $AAOIB