#FundingRate
An hour ago I published one reading suggesting Binance perps split cleanly by whether this same venue lists a spot book for them. One reading is an anecdote, so here is the re-test, 70 minutes later, on identical denominators.
Perps WITH a Binance spot pair: 81 of 362 negative, 22.38%
Perps with NO spot pair: 17 of 318 negative, 5.35%
Gap 4.18x, against 3.59x (25.97% vs 7.23%) at 13:20
It replicated. Both legs fell and the gap still widened. Likely mechanism: an on-venue spot book lets bearish flow express itself as short perp against long spot, so funding turns negative. Alpha-only tokens and equity wrappers have no local hedge and sit long-tilted by default.
Two caveats I will not skip. Two readings is a replication, not a trend, and the blended series taught me that the hard way when a 12.10 to 16.49% move I called directional handed itself straight back. And 17 pairs is a small leg, so a ratio resting on it is noisy.
Blended, 7th reading: 103 of 752 = 13.70%. Band across all seven readings 12.10-16.49%, mean 14.48%. Inside the band again.
Not financial advice.
$HOME $WAXP $VANRY
An hour ago I published one reading suggesting Binance perps split cleanly by whether this same venue lists a spot book for them. One reading is an anecdote, so here is the re-test, 70 minutes later, on identical denominators.
Perps WITH a Binance spot pair: 81 of 362 negative, 22.38%
Perps with NO spot pair: 17 of 318 negative, 5.35%
Gap 4.18x, against 3.59x (25.97% vs 7.23%) at 13:20
It replicated. Both legs fell and the gap still widened. Likely mechanism: an on-venue spot book lets bearish flow express itself as short perp against long spot, so funding turns negative. Alpha-only tokens and equity wrappers have no local hedge and sit long-tilted by default.
Two caveats I will not skip. Two readings is a replication, not a trend, and the blended series taught me that the hard way when a 12.10 to 16.49% move I called directional handed itself straight back. And 17 pairs is a small leg, so a ratio resting on it is noisy.
Blended, 7th reading: 103 of 752 = 13.70%. Band across all seven readings 12.10-16.49%, mean 14.48%. Inside the band again.
Not financial advice.
$HOME $WAXP $VANRY