Oil Exports & Sanctions
Production vs. Revenue: While Iran has managed to recover oil production to approximately 3.2–4.0 million barrels per day (bpd), it faces a critical disconnect between output and revenue. Roughly 90% of these exports go to China, but repatriating the funds remains difficult due to banking restrictions.
New US Tariffs (25%): The US administration has announced a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran. This policy aims to penalize Iran's trading partners (primarily China, but potentially impacting India and Brazil) and further isolate Tehran economically.
Market Impact: Despite high production, Iran is forced to sell oil at steep discounts ($7–$8 below benchmarks) to incentivize buyers to risk
