BREAKING: Only 33% Chance Clarity Act Becomes Law This Year
Prediction markets have sharply lowered the odds that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act will be signed into law in 2026.
Current Standing:
> Polymarket and similar platforms now price the probability around 25–35%, down dramatically from peaks above 80% earlier in the year.
> The bill passed the House in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May 2026, but it has never received a full Senate floor vote.
Why the Odds Collapsed:
> Persistent deadlock over a bipartisan ethics provision covering government officials’ crypto holdings.
> Extremely tight Senate calendar ahead of the August recess and midterm elections.
> Leadership has prioritized other legislation (nominations and Russia sanctions), leaving little runway for a 60-vote cloture threshold.
Without a breakthrough in the next few days, the realistic window for 2026 passage is closing fast. A delay would push meaningful market-structure legislation into 2027 or beyond.
Clarity Act Passage Odds Sink to ~33% as Senate Clock Runs Out
Prediction markets have sharply lowered the odds that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act will be signed into law in 2026.
Current Standing:
> Polymarket and similar platforms now price the probability around 25–35%, down dramatically from peaks above 80% earlier in the year.
> The bill passed the House in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May 2026, but it has never received a full Senate floor vote.
Why the Odds Collapsed:
> Persistent deadlock over a bipartisan ethics provision covering government officials’ crypto holdings.
> Extremely tight Senate calendar ahead of the August recess and midterm elections.
> Leadership has prioritized other legislation (nominations and Russia sanctions), leaving little runway for a 60-vote cloture threshold.
Without a breakthrough in the next few days, the realistic window for 2026 passage is closing fast. A delay would push meaningful market-structure legislation into 2027 or beyond.
Clarity Act Passage Odds Sink to ~33% as Senate Clock Runs Out