According to CNBC, attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Black Sea are disrupting commercial shipping, raising insurance and freight costs, and forcing carriers to rethink routes once considered reliable. The article said roughly 80% of global merchandise trade by volume moves by sea, while Quantum Strategy's David Roche said Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea amount to a new maritime war fought largely with drones and missiles.

Quantum estimates that about 25% of Russia's grain exports and 25% to 30% of its Black Sea oil exports could be disrupted. Yevgeniya Gaber of the Atlantic Council said Russia's suspension of shipping through the Kerch Strait has effectively shut a key maritime corridor, while Ukraine says it has degraded roughly one-third of Russia's Black Sea fleet since 2022.

Fertistream Freight's Daejin Lee said the Strait of Hormuz, the Black Sea and Bab el-Mandeb are increasingly becoming battlegrounds in a broader shift in the world order. Vespucci Maritime CEO Lars Jensen said the next flashpoint could be the Panama Canal, where geopolitical tensions and possible weather-related restrictions may reduce capacity later this year and early next year.

Zero100 co-founder Kevin O'Marah said some clients have rerouted shipments or actively managed inventories to avoid risk in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that traffic there is running at about half normal flow. He said the war in the Middle East looks likely to remain a long-term problem for movement through the strait, creating ongoing costs from rerouting, inventory buffering and shipping surcharges.

A Gallagher spokesperson said war risk insurance remains available, but rates have risen and only a handful of ship owners or charterers are choosing to sail through the Strait of Hormuz. Dubai-based investor Alain Bejjani said shipping lanes are now central to the conflict because insurers can effectively close a strait by refusing cover, and he said the industry is building permanent overland corridors, bypass pipelines and forward storage to reduce reliance on vulnerable waterways.