Huatai Securities said that after Kevin Warsh took over as the new Fed chair, financial markets shifted from pricing in dovish rate cuts to a more hawkish near-term stance. But ahead of the July policy meeting, expectations for the Fed's next move are highly split, according to 36Kr. After Warsh scrapped forward guidance, pricing has become harder, and the market's focus is expected to shift from listening to his words to watching his actions. Based on past Fed chair transitions, the current macro backdrop, and Warsh's need to build credibility, Huatai Securities brought forward its rate-hike forecast, saying the probability of a July increase is slightly above 50%, versus the market's current 40% view, while its base case puts the probability of a rate hike before September at nearly 100%.