"Has Bitcoin finally bottomed?"

This is the question dominating today's crypto market.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently suggested that the answer may still be no. His view is based on Realized Price, an on-chain metric representing the average acquisition cost of all circulating Bitcoin based on the last on-chain transaction.

Historically, Bitcoin's major bear-market bottoms have formed only after the market price approached or briefly fell below the Realized Price. This occurred during the 2015, 2018, and 2022 cycles, when widespread unrealized losses marked the final stage of market capitulation.

Although Bitcoin has fallen sharply from its 2025 highs, it still remains above its Realized Price. From this perspective, Ki argues that the market has not yet reached a "classic" cycle bottom.

However, today's market differs significantly from previous cycles. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, institutional adoption, derivatives, and macroeconomic factors now play a much larger role in price discovery.

At xWIN, we view Realized Price as an essential foundation for understanding market stress, but not a standalone timing tool. We also monitor ETF flows, Coinbase Premium, Apparent Demand, stablecoin liquidity, and miner selling activity to evaluate whether fresh capital is entering the market.

As Bitcoin evolves into an institutional asset, combining on-chain data with off-chain liquidity indicators provides a more complete picture of where the market may be heading.

Written by XWIN Japan