solid breakdown,watching that Misery Index closely now.
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Bluechip
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Oil Recently Hit $100. Here's What Happens Next to Stocks and Bitcoin
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. G7 is scrambling to release emergency oil reserves. Wall Street is calling this the largest oil supply loss in history.
Most people are panicking. I'm looking at the data.
Here's my full breakdown with price targets
1/x The war is escalating fast.
US ordered staff to leave Saudi Arabia.
Iran is ruling out immediate ceasefire.
Iranian missiles intercepted over Turkey, Qatar and UAE.
And there's one flashpoint nobody's talking about: Kharg Island.
It handles 90% of Iran's crude oil exports. If the US moves on it, expect a massive escalation
2/x Oil surged 10% over the weekend.
Brent crude futures spiked to $119 per barrel Sunday night. Dow futures dropped 1,000 points before Monday's open.
Then the G7 stepped in and said they're ready to release emergency crude oil reserves.
Oil dropped back below $100 on that statement alone.
3/x $100 per barrel is the line in the sand.
Every major investment bank told their clients the same thing: $100 oil is the panic threshold.
That's why the G7 used that exact number too. This is coordinated.
If oil stays below $100, markets stay calm. If it breaks back above $115, the G7 measures aren't working and things get ugly fast.
4/x So far the S&P is holding up better than expected.
Everyone expected a gap down Monday. We got a dip to 6600 and a bounce.
But there are two levels every analyst on Wall Street is watching right now:
100-day SMA → 6800 (already broken).
200-day SMA → 6580 (this is the real line).
If the 200-day breaks, history says expect 20%+ drawdown from the top.
5/x Now here's where it gets interesting. Stagflation.
You're going to hear this word everywhere over the next few weeks so let me explain it simply.
Stagflation = inflation going up + unemployment going up at the same time.
When both rise together, the Fed is trapped. Can't cut rates. Can't hike rates. Economy gets worse.
6/x There's actually a metric for this. It's called the Misery Index.
Misery Index = CPI (inflation) + Unemployment Rate
Right now it's at 6.9% (2.5% CPI + 4.4% unemployment).
Every time this number gets above 10, the stock market has seen a 20%+ crash.
7/x So how close are we to 10?
Current: 6.9% Trigger: 10% Gap: 3.1%
Unemployment is rising slowly, the Fed expects maybe 4.5-5% by year end.
The real wildcard is inflation. If CPI jumps from 2.5% back to 5.5% (April 2023 levels), we're cooked.
That's entirely possible if oil stays elevated.
8/x Two huge prints coming this week:
CPI → Today (forecast 2.5%)
Core PCE → March 13th (forecast 3.1%)
These numbers cover February, which is pre-war.
If they come in hot before the war impact even hits, the next prints in April will be much worse.
This is the data the Fed watches to decide rate cuts. Higher = no cuts = more pain.
9/x Now let's talk #Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is behaving like a risk-on asset right now, not digital gold.
Gold will be fine in stagflation. It always is.
But Bitcoin? It follows the S&P on the way down. Every single time.
10/x Here's the proof. Bitcoin drawdowns vs S&P drawdowns:
COVID crash → S&P -34%, BTC -53%.
Post-pandemic rate hikes → S&P -24%, BTC -58%.
Japan carry trade (2024) → S&P -8%, BTC -20%.
Jan-Apr 2025 → S&P -21%, BTC -31%.
Rough multiplier: Bitcoin drops about 2x what the S&P drops.
11/x So let's run the scenarios.
Scenario 1: S&P holds the 200-day SMA (6580)
Another 2% drop on S&P.
~4% more downside on $BTC.
Dips to ~$65K. Not a big deal.
Scenario 2: 200-day breaks, oil stays above $100
20% S&P drawdown from $7K highs → target ~$5,500
$BTC from $88K (Jan high) down ~40%
Target: low $50Ks, just below the 200-week SMA at $58K
That puts $BTC just below the 200-week SMA at $58K.
12/x And here's the thing about the 200-week SMA.
Every single time Bitcoin has dipped below it, it was the buy of a lifetime:
2015 → pico bottom
2020 COVID → below $6K
2022 → below $20K
If you bought below the 200-week SMA and held, you never lost money.
13/x My plan right now:
Holding all my #bitcoin . Not selling.
Continuing to DCA.
Sitting on a cash pile specifically for an oil panic scenario.
If BTC drops below $60K into the $50Ks, I'm loading heavy.
Anything below the 200-week SMA will look like the exact bottom 12 months from now.
14/x Bottom line:
Track oil. $100 is the line. $115+ means G7 measures failed.
Track the Misery Index (CPI + unemployment). Above 10 = real trouble.
S&P 200-day SMA at 6580 is the bull/bear pivot. If it all breaks, BTC in the low $50Ks is the floor, not the end.
Stay bullish, not blind. This is a time to prepare, not panic.
15/x If you want real-time updates on all of this:
Follow me here for condensed highlights and charts.
Subscribe on YouTube for the full live streams where I break this all down in detail.
We're going to get more headlines like this over the next month. Don't navigate blind.
Most people are panicking. I'm looking at the data.
Here's my full breakdown with price targets
1/x The war is escalating fast.
US ordered staff to leave Saudi Arabia.
Iran is ruling out immediate ceasefire.
Iranian missiles intercepted over Turkey, Qatar and UAE.
And there's one flashpoint nobody's talking about: Kharg Island.
It handles 90% of Iran's crude oil exports. If the US moves on it, expect a massive escalation
2/x Oil surged 10% over the weekend.
Brent crude futures spiked to $119 per barrel Sunday night. Dow futures dropped 1,000 points before Monday's open.
Then the G7 stepped in and said they're ready to release emergency crude oil reserves.
Oil dropped back below $100 on that statement alone.
3/x $100 per barrel is the line in the sand.
Every major investment bank told their clients the same thing: $100 oil is the panic threshold.
That's why the G7 used that exact number too. This is coordinated.
If oil stays below $100, markets stay calm. If it breaks back above $115, the G7 measures aren't working and things get ugly fast.
4/x So far the S&P is holding up better than expected.
Everyone expected a gap down Monday. We got a dip to 6600 and a bounce.
But there are two levels every analyst on Wall Street is watching right now:
100-day SMA → 6800 (already broken).
200-day SMA → 6580 (this is the real line).
If the 200-day breaks, history says expect 20%+ drawdown from the top.
5/x Now here's where it gets interesting. Stagflation.
You're going to hear this word everywhere over the next few weeks so let me explain it simply.
Stagflation = inflation going up + unemployment going up at the same time.
When both rise together, the Fed is trapped. Can't cut rates. Can't hike rates. Economy gets worse.
6/x There's actually a metric for this. It's called the Misery Index.
Misery Index = CPI (inflation) + Unemployment Rate
Right now it's at 6.9% (2.5% CPI + 4.4% unemployment).
Every time this number gets above 10, the stock market has seen a 20%+ crash.
7/x So how close are we to 10?
Current: 6.9% Trigger: 10% Gap: 3.1%
Unemployment is rising slowly, the Fed expects maybe 4.5-5% by year end.
The real wildcard is inflation. If CPI jumps from 2.5% back to 5.5% (April 2023 levels), we're cooked.
That's entirely possible if oil stays elevated.
8/x Two huge prints coming this week:
CPI → Today (forecast 2.5%)
Core PCE → March 13th (forecast 3.1%)
These numbers cover February, which is pre-war.
If they come in hot before the war impact even hits, the next prints in April will be much worse.
This is the data the Fed watches to decide rate cuts. Higher = no cuts = more pain.
9/x Now let's talk #Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is behaving like a risk-on asset right now, not digital gold.
Gold will be fine in stagflation. It always is.
But Bitcoin? It follows the S&P on the way down. Every single time.
10/x Here's the proof. Bitcoin drawdowns vs S&P drawdowns:
COVID crash → S&P -34%, BTC -53%.
Post-pandemic rate hikes → S&P -24%, BTC -58%.
Japan carry trade (2024) → S&P -8%, BTC -20%.
Jan-Apr 2025 → S&P -21%, BTC -31%.
Rough multiplier: Bitcoin drops about 2x what the S&P drops.
11/x So let's run the scenarios.
Scenario 1: S&P holds the 200-day SMA (6580)
Another 2% drop on S&P.
~4% more downside on $BTC.
Dips to ~$65K. Not a big deal.
Scenario 2: 200-day breaks, oil stays above $100
20% S&P drawdown from $7K highs → target ~$5,500
$BTC from $88K (Jan high) down ~40%
Target: low $50Ks, just below the 200-week SMA at $58K
That puts $BTC just below the 200-week SMA at $58K.
12/x And here's the thing about the 200-week SMA.
Every single time Bitcoin has dipped below it, it was the buy of a lifetime:
2015 → pico bottom
2020 COVID → below $6K
2022 → below $20K
If you bought below the 200-week SMA and held, you never lost money.
13/x My plan right now:
Holding all my #bitcoin . Not selling.
Continuing to DCA.
Sitting on a cash pile specifically for an oil panic scenario.
If BTC drops below $60K into the $50Ks, I'm loading heavy.
Anything below the 200-week SMA will look like the exact bottom 12 months from now.
14/x Bottom line:
Track oil. $100 is the line. $115+ means G7 measures failed.
Track the Misery Index (CPI + unemployment). Above 10 = real trouble.
S&P 200-day SMA at 6580 is the bull/bear pivot. If it all breaks, BTC in the low $50Ks is the floor, not the end.
Stay bullish, not blind. This is a time to prepare, not panic.
15/x If you want real-time updates on all of this:
Follow me here for condensed highlights and charts.
Subscribe on YouTube for the full live streams where I break this all down in detail.
We're going to get more headlines like this over the next month. Don't navigate blind.
إخلاء مسؤولية: يتضمن آراء جهات خارجية. لا تُعدّ نصيحة. يُمكن استخدام Binance AI دون أي ضمان. اطلع على الشروط والأحكام.