According to CryptoPotato, Into The Cryptoverse CEO Benjamin Cowen has postulated whether the current Bitcoin market cycle is normal or a “left-translated” one, where the peak occurs earlier than usual. Bitcoin has already reached a new all-time high, and there are still three weeks to go until the halving. This has introduced the possibility of this cycle peak coming much earlier than previous ones, which happened in the year following the halving event.
If Bitcoin markets pull back after any Federal Reserve rate cuts, it could put it back on track with prior cycles, potentially peaking in 2025. However, if there is no significant correction or consolidation period, it could suggest a left-translated peak. Cowen believes the answer to whether this Bitcoin market cycle is a normal one or left-translated will depend on how the market reacts to rate cuts in a few months.
The Fed kept rates the same at 5.5% during its last meeting on March 20, which initiated a lot of immediate volatility. Its next policy and rate decision meeting is in May, but 95.8% of observers think it will remain unchanged again, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Cowen compared the price action in 2013 and 2021, with blow-off tops in April followed by another top in November. He suggested that a similar pattern in this cycle could indicate a left-translated cycle. Ultimately, this bull market cycle will be dependent on Bitcoin's reaction after rate cuts arrive later this year.
