xmr

Over the past month, Monero (XMR) has faced intense selling pressure, with its price plunging nearly 60% within just four weeks. This sharp correction has erased most of the gains accumulated earlier in the cycle and pushed XMR into a prolonged downtrend.
The magnitude of the decline reflects a rapid deterioration in investor confidence. Both long-term holders and short-term traders have reduced their exposure, as uncertainty continues to dominate the broader cryptocurrency market.
Monero Traders Gradually Exit the Market
Data from the derivatives market reveals a clear withdrawal of trader participation in Monero. Open interest (OI) has dropped significantly, falling from approximately $279 million in mid-January to around $118 million, representing a 57% decline.
This sharp contraction highlights a major reduction in futures trading activity and suggests a notable cooling of speculative interest in XMR.
Two primary factors appear to be driving this trend:
Profit-taking following earlier price rallies.
Broader market weakness, which has undermined trader confidence and prompted the closure of leveraged positions, resulting in thinner market liquidity.
Despite the decline in participation, some short-term momentum indicators are beginning to hint that selling pressure may be easing.
Bullish Divergence Signals Waning Selling Pressure
One notable technical development is emerging from the Money Flow Index (MFI). While XMR’s price continues to form lower lows, the MFI is printing higher lows, creating a bullish divergence.
This divergence suggests that although prices remain under pressure, the intensity of selling momentum is weakening. Historically, such signals often precede periods of price stabilization or short-term relief rallies, even if a full trend reversal is not immediately confirmed.
While this alone is not sufficient to signal a definitive bottom, it does indicate that XMR may avoid a deeper breakdown in the near term—provided demand remains stable.
XMR Price Recovery: Slow, but Still Possible
At the time of writing, Monero is trading near $326, just below the key resistance level at $335. Although the price is attempting a gradual recovery, it remains constrained within a downtrend that has persisted for nearly four weeks.
Breaking above the $335 resistance under current market conditions remains a significant challenge. The next major resistance level is located near $357, which could act as a strong barrier to any upside attempt.
Without an influx of new capital or a meaningful improvement in market sentiment, XMR is likely to continue trading within its current range, as both buyers and sellers remain cautious.
Death Cross Risk Still in Focus
Despite early signs of momentum stabilization, downside risks remain firmly in place. A potential “Death Cross” may form if the 200-day EMA crosses above the 50-day EMA, a technical pattern often associated with prolonged bearish phases.
Should this scenario materialize, XMR could slide below the $291 support level, with further downside risk toward $265 or lower, extending the current bearish trend.
Outlook: A Critical Phase for Monero
In summary, Monero is navigating a challenging period marked by strong selling pressure, declining trader participation, and fragile market sentiment. While technical indicators such as the MFI divergence offer early signs of easing downside momentum, a sustainable recovery will likely require renewed capital inflows and a broader improvement in investor confidence.
For now, XMR remains at a crossroads, with both stabilization and further downside still on the table.
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects a personal blog-style analysis. It does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making any financial decisions. The author is not responsible for any investment outcomes.
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