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September Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Show Mild Job Growth as Data Vacuum Raises Market Sensitivity
The first U.S. nonfarm payrolls report since the prolonged government shutdown is scheduled for release tonight, and analysts broadly expect modest job growth amid mixed economic signals and heightened uncertainty.

Multiple institutions have weighed in on what to expect:
Rockefeller projects a 50,000 increase in September payrolls, indicating a relatively steady labor market despite recently weak data.
Indeed Hiring Lab expects little improvement, suggesting that the current labor softness is likely to persist.
Pantheon Macroeconomics warns that any downside surprise may be exaggerated, given the six-week data blackout caused by the shutdown.
A Reuters survey also forecasts a 50,000 rise, with economists expecting that August’s unusually weak numbers were distorted by seasonal effects and could be revised upward.
Academic and institutional views also highlight deeper trends:
Loyola Marymount University identifies a clear slowdown but does not foresee the economy entering recession, expecting the labor market to remain subdued.
Nationwide predicts a 40,000–50,000 increase, noting that companies appear to be in a "neutral" position — neither hiring aggressively nor laying off workers.
Credit Agricole sees a 55,000 gain with unemployment at 4.3%, describing the market as cooling at a controlled pace, with both low hiring and low layoffs.
Standard Chartered expects very weak employment data from September through November, citing minimal seasonal hiring and unusually high layoffs — a trend that could nudge Federal Reserve moderates toward rate cuts.
Some institutions expect stronger numbers, while others highlight risks:
Goldman Sachs forecasts an 80,000 increase with 4.3% unemployment, but cautions that October — still unreleased — may show a 50,000 decline.
Union Bank projects around 40,000, believing the market response may be limited due to ample private-sector data already available.
Consulting firm RSM expects September — along with July and August revisions — to present a slightly more positive picture than consensus, though still reflecting an economy under pressure.
Overall, the market consensus anticipates a 50,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls and a 4.3% unemployment rate, pointing to a labor market that is slowing — but not collapsing.
#USJobsReport #NonFarmPayRolls #USLaborMarket #USStocksForecast2026 #FedWatch

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has officially cancelled the October 2025 jobs report, citing incomplete data collection after the government shutdown.

📊 The unemployment and labor market data will now be merged into the November report, leaving a critical gap in current economic visibility.

⚠️ Market Implication:

With key employment data missing, the uncertainty around the U.S. economy increases, putting extra pressure on risk assets — including crypto.

#USLabor #USLaborMarket

Payrolls Expected to Signal Sharp US Labor Slowdown; Unemployment Rate Projected at 4.5% Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation

Market jitters have intensified ahead of the release of the long-awaited November nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, with investors focused on how the data will influence the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions. The report, which includes both October and November data due to a government shutdown, is expected to show a significant slowdown in the U.S. labor market.
Key Data Expectations
NFP Growth: Economists project a soft print of around 50,000 jobs added in November, following an expected job loss in October due to federal worker layoffs.
Unemployment Rate: The rate is expected to tick up to 4.5%, the highest level since 2021, indicating building slack in the labor market.
Average Hourly Earnings: Wage growth is expected to rise slightly by 0.3% month-over-month (m/m).
Private Payrolls (ADP): A separate report from ADP already indicated a surprise decline of 32,000 private sector jobs in the last month, the first drop since March 2023.
Federal Reserve Implications
The Fed has already cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of its last three meetings, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75%. These cuts were primarily made to head off a potential weakening in the job market, outweighing concerns about inflation that remains above the 2% target.
Potential for Further Cuts: A significantly weaker-than-expected jobs report could accelerate expectations for additional rate cuts in early 2026, as the Fed prioritizes its maximum employment mandate.
Pause in Cuts: Conversely, a surprisingly strong report might suggest the recent cuts were sufficient to support the labor market, potentially leading the Fed to pause and assess the economy's performance at the current rate level.
Market Volatility: The data is expected to cause substantial market swings across equities, bonds, and currencies due to the high degree of uncertainty and the data's critical importance for future monetary policy.
The official data is set to be released on Tuesday, December 16, 2025.

#NonfarmPayrolls #USLaborMarket #FederalReserve #USJobsData #interestrates

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