pax

Look at the chart. $337B IN LOSSES. American banks are dying.

Banks loaded up on long dated bonds when rates were near zero.
Treasuries. MBS. “Safe” assets.

Then the Fed delivered the FASTEST rate hikes in modern history.

Bond prices collapsed.
Not because they’re risky but because DURATION got nuked.

Those losses are UNREALIZED because the bonds weren’t sold.

If held to maturity:
•Cash flows are intact
•Par value is paid
•Losses MATHEMATICALLY disappear

On paper ≠ in reality.

So where’s the danger?

LIQUIDITY.

Banks fund long term assets with short term liabilities (deposits).
That works until CONFIDENCE cracks.

If depositors rush for exits:
= Banks must sell bonds early
= Paper losses become REAL
= Capital evaporates FAST

That’s exactly how SVB died.

Not bad assets.
Bad timing + FAST withdrawals.

The system didn’t implode because:
•Losses were parked in HELD TO MATURITY
•The Fed backstopped LIQUIDITY
•Deposits stabilized after 2023

But don’t get it twisted.

This is NOT “nothing.”

It means:
•Banks are CONSTRAINED
•Lending stays TIGHT
•Credit creation SLOWS
•Growth bleeds quietly

And this is where today’s move in GOLD and precious metals fits in.

Gold didn’t fall because the banking system is “fine.”
It fell because RATES stayed restrictive.

Gold moves on:
REAL YIELDS
USD LIQUIDITY
RATE EXPECTATIONS

Not slow burn balance sheet stress.

When yields stop falling or move higher the opportunity cost of holding gold rises.
Liquidity tightens.
Non yielding assets get sold.

That’s why gold dropped today.
Silver fell harder.
Miners got hit the most.

This does NOT invalidate the banking stress story.

It confirms the regime.

No panic.
No forced policy reversal.
No emergency easing.

Yet.

Short term:
TIGHT liquidity
HIGH rates
Metals can bleed

Medium term:
Banking stress accumulates
Credit contracts
Something eventually breaks

That’s when the trade flips.

This is FINANCIAL GRAVITY.

The real risk is CONFIDENCE + RATES staying high.

Btw, I’ve been tracking market cycles for 15 years.
Every major top and every major bottom followed this same sequence.

And as always I’ll share exactly when the cycle turns with my followers.
In real time not in hindsight.

That’s how banking crises work.

SLOW invisible pressure.

Until one day it isn’t.
$XAG
Source: Alex Mason from X

$XAU
#PAX

$PAXG PAX Gold (PAXG), a digital token backed 1:1 by physical gold, has shown relative price stability compared to highly volatile cryptocurrencies. As global markets react to macroeconomic trends and inflation expectations, gold-linked assets like $PAXG continue to attract interest from traders seeking safer stores of value
Recent price movement shows $PAXG tracking traditional gold prices, with modest upside pressure as investors hedge against currency fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainty. Support has been firm near key psychological levels, while resistance lies closer to recent multi-month highs. Overall sentiment remains cautiously positive, supported by gold’s enduring appeal in uncertain markets
Key Levels to Watch:
• 🛡️ Support: Near recent consolidation lows
• 📈 Resistance: Near multi-month highs mirroring gold price peaks

$BTC $PAXG
I keep seeing people say that money will rotate out of Gold and straight into Crypto, and while that sounds great in theory, the timing matters.
Gold and Silver are rising because uncertainty is still high, economic stress, geopolitics, government shutdown risks, and tighter financial conditions with rising yields are keeping investors defensive. In that kind of environment, Gold doesn’t usually top early. If anything, it tends to stay bid while uncertainty remains unresolved.
Crypto is different. It performs best when growth is improving, confidence is back, and monetary policy becomes clearly supportive. We’re not there yet. The Fed may have paused, but policy has only moved from restrictive toward neutral, it’s still far from truly accommodative. Historically, the strongest crypto cycles happened when liquidity was clearly expanding, like in 2016 and in 2020.
Because of that, I don’t see a confirmed Gold top yet but yes, meaningful corrections will come, but they will be mean reversion moves, and I don’t see meaningful capital rotation into Crypto at this stage. On the charts, Bitcoin and broader crypto still look corrective, not impulsive.
Until liquidity actually improves, any crypto rallies should be treated with caution. The rotation may come, just not yet. Stocks are having clear divergence and lack of momentum as of now.