ethetfs

وفقًا لـ PANews، قدمت شركة Grayscale، وهي شركة لإدارة أصول العملات المشفرة، إشعارًا إلى هيئة الأوراق المالية والبورصات الأمريكية (SEC) في السابع من مايو لسحب طلبها لصندوق ETF الآجل الخاص بـ Ethereum (ETH). كان من المقرر في الأصل أن تتخذ هيئة الأوراق المالية والبورصة قرارًا نهائيًا بشأن صندوق Grayscale للعقود الآجلة لـ Ethereum في 30 مايو. قدمت Grayscale في البداية طلب 19b-4 لصندوق ETF للعقود الآجلة لـ Ethereum في 19 سبتمبر 2023. إذا تمت الموافقة عليه، فسيتم إدراج صندوق ETF في بورصة نيويورك.

$BTC
$ETH
The digital asset ecosystem in February 2026 is currently undergoing its most significant structural realignment since the inception of institutional-grade investment vehicles. As of February 19, 2026, the market is defined by a profound "risk-off" sentiment, driven by a convergence of geopolitical shocks, a transition in U.S. monetary leadership, and internal structural failures within the decentralized finance (DeFi) architecture. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), the two cornerstones of the industry, have exhibited divergent technical behaviors and varying degrees of sensitivity to the current macroeconomic environment, with Bitcoin attempting to defend long-term structural floors while Ethereum navigates a deeper, more complex liquidity crisis.
This report provides an exhaustive analysis of the technical configurations, fundamental drivers, and macroeconomic catalysts shaping the valuations of BTC and ETH. It incorporates a detailed examination of the weekly price charts, the persistent impact of the October 2025 "10/10" liquidation event, and the technological roadmap that will likely define the next phase of the market cycle. 
The Contemporary Crypto Crisis: An Analytical Overview
The first quarter of 2026 has been marked by a brutal correction, with Bitcoin logging its worst start to a year since 2018. Following a historic rally that saw Bitcoin reach an all-time high of approximately US$126,198 on October 7, 2025, and Ethereum hit a record peak of US$4,954 in late August 2025, the market has entered a regime of "extreme fear".
As of February 19, 2026, the price action reflects a market struggling to absorb the impact of massive institutional outflows and a breakdown in previous support levels. Bitcoin is trading near US$66,500 - $66,770, down approximately 47.4% from its record highs.[3, 10] Ethereum’s performance has been more distressed, trading near US$1,940 - $1,967, which represents a 60.5% drawdown from its peak. This performance gap highlights the "high-beta" nature of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin during periods of systemic deleveraging.
Comparative Market Data Snapshot
The following table provides the current market statistics and historical context for both assets, illustrating the depth of the current drawdown and the shift in market dominance.

The Macroeconomic Crucible: Geopolitical Shocks and Monetary Regimes
The current price action cannot be understood in isolation from the broader macroeconomic environment. The digital asset market in early 2026 is no longer a peripheral speculative niche but a highly integrated component of the global risk landscape, sensitive to trade policy, interest rate expectations, and diplomatic stability.
The Trump Tariff Shock and Trade Policy
The primary catalyst for the sustained weakness in late 2025 and early 2026 was the announcement of aggressive U.S. trade policies. The introduction of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, added on top of an existing 30% tariff, sent shockwaves through global markets. While these measures were intended to strengthen domestic industry, they introduced a level of volatility that forced a rapid repricing of all risk-on assets.
For the crypto market, this "geopolitical shock" acted as the trigger for the 10/10 crash, which saw Bitcoin plummet from US$122,000 to US$105,000 in a matter of hours. The highly leveraged structure of the market at the time turned what should have been a standard correction into a full-scale liquidation event. By February 2026, the market is still "haunted" by this event, as the structural and psychological damage has yet to be fully repaired.
The Hawkish Federal Reserve and the "Warsh" Nomination
Complementing the trade-related shocks is a significant shift in U.S. monetary policy expectations. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Chair of the Federal Reserve in late January 2026 reinforced market expectations of a strict, hawkish monetary stance. The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates near 3.75%, despite cooling inflation, which stood at 2.4% in February.
This policy stance has supported a strong U.S. Dollar, with the Dollar Index (DXY) exceeding 97.5. A strong dollar is traditionally a headwind for Bitcoin, which functions as a denominator of global dollar liquidity. As investors rotate into the safety of cash and short-dated U.S. Treasuries, the liquidity that previously fueled the crypto rally has been siphoned off.
The Greenland Crisis and Global Instability
Additional layers of geopolitical uncertainty have emerged from transatlantic tensions. Diplomatic friction between the Trump administration and European nations over the "Greenland question" has created a diplomatic crisis that has pushed investors toward defensive positions. Furthermore, a partial U.S. government shutdown in early 2026 delayed key economic data releases, adding a layer of opacity to the market that institutional participants find particularly unsettling.
Bitcoin: Technical Resilience and the "Digital Gold" Hypothesis Under Fire
The weekly chart for Bitcoin (Image 2) provides a stark visualization of the asset’s struggle to maintain its long-term growth trajectory. Despite the 47% drawdown, Bitcoin remains the relative outperformer in the space, as investors view it as the "least risky" among digital assets during periods of stress.
Analysis of the 200-Week EMA and SMA
The 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) form what technical analysts describe as a "cloud" of support. As of mid-February 2026, Bitcoin is battling this key trend line.

The current technical setup is high-stakes. A weekly close below US$68,300, followed by a retest of this level as new resistance, has historically triggered "bearish acceleration". Analysts such as Rekt Capital have warned that this pattern could position Bitcoin for a repeat of previous bear market cycles where the breakdown leads to a long-term accumulation phase.
Support and Resistance Dynamics
The weekly chart (Image 2) highlights a critical support zone (the lower yellow box) between US$40,000 and US$50,000. This area represents a historic consolidation point where significant buying interest has previously resided. Conversely, an arrow on the chart points toward a potential relief target of US$90,000 - $93,000, aligning with the 50-day EMA.
For Bitcoin to return to a sustainable uptrend, it must first reclaim the US$70,000 psychological level and then the US$80,000 level, where the 50-day EMA currently runs. Failing to do so opens the path to testing the US$60,000 - $62,000 range, which some analysts view as the "last line of defense".
The Mayer Multiple and Oversold Signals
Despite the bearish price action, some quantitative metrics suggest a potential bottom is near. The Mayer Multiple, which measures the current price relative to the 200-day moving average, is currently in "deep oversold territory," with values below 0.8. Throughout Bitcoin's history, such readings have consistently signaled global market bottoms and served as some of the best long-term buy signals. This suggests that while the short-term trend is bearish, the "value" proposition for long-term holders is reaching an attractive point.
Ethereum: The Infrastructure Narrative and the DeFi Liquidity Shock
The technical picture for Ethereum (Image 1) is considerably more distressed than Bitcoin's. While Bitcoin is testing its 200-week EMA, Ethereum has already fallen significantly below its comparable long-term moving averages, reflecting a deeper systemic crisis within its decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem.
Technical Breakdown on the Weekly Chart

The weekly chart for ETH/USD (Image 1) shows a series of bearish indicators. The asset is boxed between US$1,800 and US$2,100, levels not seen since May of the previous year.
The arrow on the ETH chart (Image 1) suggests a potential target for a technical rebound toward the US$3,000 level, which would require reclaiming both the 100-week and 200-week EMAs. However, the immediate reality is a consolidation at the US$1,900 - $2,000 level, which has become a "ceiling" rather than a "floor".
Bearish EMA Stacking and Momentum
Ethereum is currently trading below its 50, 100, and 200 EMAs, a configuration known as "bearish stacking". This reflects sustained selling pressure and a market where every relief rally is being used by institutional and retail participants as an opportunity to exit positions. The 20-day EMA near US$2,221 represents the first significant hurdle for any recovery.
The lower support box on the chart (Image 1) at US$1,200 - $1,400 is a sobering possibility if the current US$1,800 floor fails to hold. This range corresponds to the 2022 and early 2023 consolidation phases, suggesting that Ethereum could erase over two years of gains if the bearish cycle intensifies.
Oscillators and Divergence
In contrast to the price action, some oscillators are flashing tentative signs of stabilization. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator on the daily chart has shown expanded green histogram bars, and the indicator itself sits above the signal line, encouraging some contrarian investors to increase exposure. However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering in oversold zones and the Fear & Greed Index at 8 (Extreme Fear), the market sentiment is so deeply pessimistic that technical bounces have lacked follow-through.
The 10/10 Massacre: Structural Fragility and the USDe Depeg
The reason for Ethereum's significant underperformance relative to Bitcoin lies in the structural failure of a key ecosystem component during the October 2025 market crash. This event, known as the "10/10 Massacre," exposed fundamental weaknesses in how risk was being managed across major trading platforms.
The Binance Factor and the USDe Leverage Loop
Central to the 10/10 crash was USDe, a synthetic dollar on the Ethereum network. Binance had launched an aggressive marketing campaign offering 12% APY on USDe and incentivized users to convert established stablecoins like USDT and USDC into this much riskier asset. Sophisticated market participants discovered a "leverage loop": they could convert USDT into USDe, use that USDe as collateral to borrow more USDT, and repeat the process, driving APYs as high as 70%+.
When the Trump tariff announcement triggered initial market volatility, USDe depegged rapidly. This triggered a "classic doom loop" of cascading liquidations:
Margin Calls: As USDe value fell, the collateralized positions became under-capitalized.Forced Selling: Exchanges were forced to sell the collateral (ETH and BTC) to cover the loans.Price Contagion: The massive sell-off in ETH lowered the price further, triggering more margin calls and forced selling.
Within hours, over US$19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out, and more than 1.6 million individual trader accounts were liquidated. This event fundamentally altered the psychological landscape of crypto investing, erasing the confidence of retail traders who were the first casualties of the crash.
The Bhutanese Selling Pressure
A secondary, yet notable, factor in the persistent selling pressure on Bitcoin has been the activity of sovereign holders. On-chain data from Arkham Intelligence revealed that the Kingdom of Bhutan has begun liquidating its Bitcoin reserves. Bhutan, which had accumulated thousands of BTC through its hydroelectric mining program, has reduced its exposure as the price remains below the estimated mining cost of US$87,000. This sovereign-level selling adds to the "whales" reducing their exposure, creating a persistent headwind for Bitcoin's recovery.
Institutional Retrenchment: ETF Outflows and Derivatives Deleveraging
The entry of institutions was supposed to bring stability to the cryptocurrency market. However, in February 2026, it is clear that institutional adoption has instead made the market more vulnerable to professional "de-risking" and macroeconomic shifts.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows
Since the 10/10 crash, approximately US$8.5 billion has exited U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs.[3] In January 2026 alone, outflows totaled over US$3 billion. This reversal of capital flows indicates that institutional investors, who previously viewed Bitcoin as a "digital gold" hedge, are now treating it as a high-risk asset to be liquidated at the first sign of global instability.
The Basis Trade Collapse and CME Volatility
The market structure has also been hit by the collapse of the "basis trade." Hedge funds had aggressively exploited the arbitrage between spot ETFs and futures, which offered returns as high as 17% in 2024. In early 2026, this arbitrage has plummeted to less than 5%, forcing these funds to unwind their massive positions. Consequently, futures exposure to Bitcoin on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is down by roughly 66% since late 2024. This reduction in speculative activity has lowered volatility but has also removed the "buying pressure" that previously supported sharp rebounds.
Comparative Institutional Metrics
The following table highlights the shift in institutional participation and market structure between the 2025 peak and the current correction.

Technical Roadmap: Pectra, Fusaka, and the Evolution of the Modular Blockchain
While the price action is dominated by macroeconomic and structural stressors, the fundamental development of the Ethereum and Bitcoin networks continues at an accelerated pace. These technical upgrades are the primary drivers for a potential decoupling from the current bearish trend in the medium term.
The Ethereum Pectra Upgrade (Phase 1 and 2)
Ethereum activated its largest-ever upgrade, Pectra (Prague-Electra), on the mainnet on May 7, 2025. The upgrade consists of a series of Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs) designed to improve scalability and the user experience.
EIP-7702 (Account Abstraction): This is a "headliner" for Pectra, allowing regular wallets to temporarily function as smart contracts. This enables features like social recovery of lost keys and "freemium" dApps where third parties can cover gas fees, significantly lowering the barrier for mainstream users.EIP-7251 (Validator Consolidation): By increasing the maximum effective validator balance from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH, this proposal allows large operators to merge thousands of validators into one. This reduces network bandwidth demands and simplifies operations for institutional stakers.EIP-7691 (Blob Throughput): Building on the Dencun upgrade’s "blobs," this EIP doubles the target and maximum blob capacity. Blobs are the primary data storage mechanism for Layer 2 rollups like Arbitrum and Base, and this increase is expected to reduce L2 transaction fees by another 10-100x.
The Fusaka and Glamsterdam Upgrades
Looking beyond Pectra, the Ethereum developer community is focusing on Fusaka (Fulu-Osaka), expected in late 2025 or early 2026. Fusaka is a "Verkle-only" upgrade, focusing on the transition to Verkle Trees, which will drastically reduce the data required for nodes to verify blocks, moving Ethereum closer to "statelessness". Following Fusaka, the Glamsterdam upgrade is planned for later in 2026, introducing Enshrined Proposer-Builder Separation (ePBS) to further decentralize the block production process.
The Strategic Pivot of Base
One of the most significant developments in the Layer 2 ecosystem is the pivot of the Base network. Incubated by Coinbase, Base has become the largest network in the OP Stack "Superchain". In February 2026, Base announced it would move away from the shared Optimism technology stack to a "unified, Base-operated stack".
This move reflects a shift from a collaborative "storytelling" phase to an "economic discipline" phase, where Layer 2s must generate real revenue and durable usage. Base’s ambition for 2026 centers on the "Base App," an all-in-one interface that combines wallet, social, and creator economy features, leveraging Coinbase’s millions of verified users to drive mainstream adoption.
Bitcoin's Second Act: Programmability and L2s
Bitcoin is also undergoing a fundamental transformation from "digital gold" to a "smart contract base layer". A new wave of Layer 2 solutions, such as Stacks, is enabling DeFi features, NFTs, and interoperable assets directly on the Bitcoin network without compromising its security.
In 2026, Bitcoin is no longer just an asset to "HODL" but a network to build on. This evolution into a foundations layer for decentralized applications provides Bitcoin with a "developer momentum" it has rarely had, potentially creating a new source of demand that is less sensitive to institutional ETF flows.
Strategic Outlook and Binary Catalysts: The Road to Q2 2026
The immediate future of the digital asset market hinges on a few key binary catalysts and the ability of major assets to hold their current structural supports.
The U.S. Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs
The most significant catalyst for the remainder of February 2026 is the expected U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the administration's tariff powers, scheduled for February 20. The ruling on whether the tariffs imposed under emergency powers are legal could flip risk appetite in either direction within a single session.
Bullish Scenario: If the Court rules against the administration, a "relief rally" in equities and crypto is likely. When a similar ruling was delayed in January, Bitcoin jumped US$2,000 in under an hour.[4, 22] A positive outcome could see US$140 billion in tariff revenue become eligible for refunds, providing a massive liquidity injection to the market.Bearish Scenario: If the tariffs are upheld, the "risk-off" environment will likely persist. Analysts suggest that the administration may act quickly to replace any struck-down tariffs with alternative legal authorities, meaning any relief rally could be short-lived.
Yield Opportunities and Asset Staking
For investors navigating this volatile period, platforms like Binance continue to provide "yield arena" offers. Simple Earn, ETH Staking, and Dual Investment opportunities provide a way to earn passive income while waiting for a market reversal. ETH Staking currently offers dynamic APRs up to 2.5%, while Dual Investment options for BTC and ETH feature potential returns of 15% or more.
Long-Term Price Targets
Despite the current gloom, long-term forecasts remain ambitious. Bernstein has maintained a call for Bitcoin to hit US$150,000 by the end of 2026, supported by the continued decline in exchange reserves and the eventual return of institutional inflows.[26] Similarly, Ethereum analysts see potential for ETH to reach the US$5,200 - $7,500 range by the end of 2026, provided that network usage continues to expand on Layer 2s and the Pectra/Fusaka upgrades are successful.
Synthesis and Recommendations
The current divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum in the February 2026 correction reflects a market that is maturing but still prone to extreme structural shocks. Bitcoin has maintained its position as the market leader, but its tethering to institutional macro cycles has undermined its narrative as an uncorrelated hedge. Ethereum is suffering from the "hangover" of the 10/10 depegging event but is fundamentally stronger from a technical perspective than at any time in its history.
Tactical Conclusions
Bitcoin (BTC): The US$60,000 - $65,000 range is the "must-hold" support zone. A definitive break below this level would signal a shift from a correction to a secular bear market. The current oversold signals suggest an accumulation opportunity for long-term holders, but short-term traders should wait for a reclaim of the 200-week EMA at US$68,300 before committing new capital.Ethereum (ETH): Ethereum remains in a "capitulation" phase. The US$1,800 - $1,900 demand zone is being heavily tested. A recovery depends on reclaiming the US$2,000 level and, eventually, the US$2,600 EMA resistance. Investors should monitor Layer 2 adoption and the progress of the Fusaka upgrade as primary indicators of long-term value.Risk Management: The February 20 Supreme Court ruling is a "binary risk" event. Given the "Extreme Fear" sentiment and high leverage remaining in parts of the system, participants should prioritize capital preservation and consider yield-generating products to offset volatility.
In conclusion, the crypto market in early 2026 is undergoing a painful but necessary deleveraging. The "unyielding" Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have flushed the excess leverage from the system, particularly within the Ethereum DeFi ecosystem. While the technical charts currently show distress, the underlying technological progress—from Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade to Bitcoin’s emerging Layer 2 ecosystem—suggests that the foundations for the next expansion phase are being laid, albeit in a more clinical and institutionalized environment than previous cycles.
#PredictionMarketsCFTCBacking #BTC走势分析 #Binance #ETHETFS

$ETH السعر الحالي: 1,972.60
نطاق 24 ساعة: 1,954 – 2,039
مؤشر القوة النسبية (14): 43.5
المؤشرات: أشرطة بولينجر (20)، متوسط حجم التداول
🔎 الهيكل قصير الأجل (دقيقتان)
1️⃣ الاتجاه
السعر يتحرك بشكل جانبي إلى هبوطي قليلاً
ارتفاعات أقل تتشكل بعد الرفض بالقرب من 1,980+
السوق يتماسك حالياً بالقرب من منتصف الحد السفلي لشريط بولينجر
2️⃣ أشرطة بولينجر
الأشرطة تتقلص قليلاً → تقلبات أقل
السعر يلامس الحد السفلي → احتمال ارتداد قصير الأجل
لا يوجد اختراق قوي بعد
3️⃣ مؤشر القوة النسبية (14) – 43
أقل من 50 → زخم هبوطي

أصدرت ستاندرد تشارترد توقعًا مقلقًا لسعر بيتكوين، داعية المستثمرين للاستعداد لـ "المزيد من الألم." وفقًا للبنك، قد ينخفض $BTC Bitcoin إلى 50,000 دولار في الأسابيع القادمة بينما يستمر الشعور في دوامة هبوطية.
جيفري كندريك، رئيس الأبحاث العالمية للأصول الرقمية في البنك، أشار أيضًا إلى أن $ETH Ethereum قد ينخفض نحو 1,400 دولار بالتزامن مع تراجع بيتكوين، وفقًا لأحدث أخبار سوق العملات المشفرة اليوم.
في مكان آخر في عالم العملات المشفرة، يقوم المستثمرون بالتوجه نحو Pepeto بسبب الرياضيات المثيرة للاهتمام في عملية البيع المسبق على الرغم من أن المشروع لا يزال في مرحلة التجميع. لقد أظهرت Pepeto قيمة واضحة من خلال تقديم بنية تحتية لتداول الميمات مباشرة للمستثمرين الأفراد. سعر البيع المسبق هو 0.000000184 دولار مع التزام يزيد عن 7 ملايين دولار بالفعل.