The short-side objective around $270 has been met, and the current bounce is best viewed as technical relief, not a trend shift.
The key development so far is price reclaiming the 61.8% Fibonacci zone near $310, which acted as the last structural buffer preventing a deeper drawdown toward the 78.6% retracement at ~$200. That level did its job for now.
However, structure remains fragile.
Unless $330 is reclaimed decisively in the short term, the probability remains elevated for another revisit of the $270 demand zone. The market has not yet shown sufficient acceptance above resistance to suggest accumulation.
A critical level to monitor is the daily 200 SMA:
Sustained closes below it historically shift ZEC into a slow-grind distribution phaseIn that scenario, downside expansion toward $200 becomes a structural outcome, not a surprise
For the chart to genuinely reset toward neutrality, ZEC would need a push toward ~$450, which would:
Break the descending trendlineClear horizontal resistanceComplete a two-layer structural breakout
Until then, this remains a corrective structure, not a reversal.
Large corrections like this are a reminder of why narrative-first trading is dangerous in crypto. Narratives usually arrive after structure resolves not before.
Price doesn’t follow stories.
Stories follow price.
The chart will tell you what the narrative is going to be long before the market starts repeating it.
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