📘 BTC Weekly Education | Downside Cup & Handle Explained (DYOR)
Many traders still expect a bullish continuation, but the weekly structure is telling a different story.
Let’s break this down step by step 👇
🧠 Pattern: Downside Cup & Handle (Bearish Continuation)
1️⃣ Cup Formation (Distribution Phase)
After the rally from 74.5K → 126K, BTC formed a rounded top structure.
- Overlapping candles
- Multiple rejections near highs
- Long upper wicks
- No strong follow-through
This is not accumulation.
This is distribution (smart money exit zone).
2️⃣ Handle Formation (Weak Consolidation)
Price then moved into a tight consolidation range with:
- Lower highs
- Weak bounce attempts
- Decreasing volume
- RSI below 40
- MACD staying negative
This handle is not bullish — it’s a bearish continuation handle.
3️⃣ Breakdown Confirmation (Weekly)
- Previous weekly candle → rejection wick (buyers failed)
- Last weekly candle → weekly close below handle support
- Structure broken on higher timeframe
➡️ This confirms bearish acceptance below support, not a fakeout.
📉 Why downside probability is higher
- Supertrend still RED (weekly)
- MA10 acting as resistance
- RSI = 39 (bearish momentum)
- MACD expanding red histogram
- No strong volume on bounce
🎯 Key Liquidity Zones (Education only)
- 82K
- 78K
- 74.5K (major base)
⚠️ These are education zones, not signals
✅ Invalidation
Bullish only if:
- Weekly close above 95K
- Volume expansion
- RSI recovers above 45
Until then → trend remains bearish continuation
📌 Final note
This is not fear.
This is structure + probability + patience.
Always manage risk.
Always DYOR.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoEducation #MarketStructure #TechnicalAnalysis