🔥 $RIVER — BLOW-OFF TOP → DISTRIBUTION → DOWNSIDE CONTINUATION 🔥
This is what a failed breakout looks like in real time. 👀
📉 MARKET STRUCTURE BREAKDOWN
#RIVER printed a classic blow-off top, followed by an aggressive dump. Since then, price hasn’t reclaimed strength — instead it’s stuck chopping, which usually means distribution, not accumulation.
The first push higher after the dump was rejected instantly. That’s a major tell.
⚠️ WHAT THE CHART IS SAYING
Momentum rolled over hard after the blow-off
Buyers failed to regain acceptance above the prior range
Each bounce is getting sold into
Current price action = corrective move, not trend reversal
As long as price stays capped here, downside remains the higher-probability path.
🚨 TRADE IDEA — SHORT BIAS 🔴 SHORT ENTRY: 15.5 – 16.2
🛑 STOP LOSS: 18.2 (above structure = thesis invalid)
🎯 TARGETS:
• TP1: 13.8
• TP2: 12.6
• TP3: 11.4
Risk is defined. Structure is broken. Momentum favors sellers.
🧠 WHY THIS SETUP MAKES SENSE ✔ Blow-off top often marks local highs
✔ Rejection on first reclaim attempt
✔ No acceptance back above range
✔ Choppy price = distribution phase
✔ Sellers defending aggressively
This is fade the bounce, not catch the bottom.
⚡ TRADE PLAN
Shorts only while price is capped below resistance
Protect risk — volatility can spike
Trail profits as targets hit
If price reclaims and holds above range → step aside
🌊 FINAL THOUGHT Blow-off tops don’t resolve sideways…
They resolve lower.
As long as
#RIVER can’t reclaim strength, the path of least resistance is down. 📉🔥
Trade $RIVER here 👇
$RIVER
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