btcusd

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) reached (almost) its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) last week fastest than any other Bear Cycle before. At the same time, its 1W LMACD hit the same symmetrical level (blue) it did every time BTC completed the 1st Stage of the Cycle. Especially in the case of the (previous) 2022 Bear Cycle, it was around the same time the price came close to the 1W MA200 as well.
As this chart shows, the 4-year Cycle bottom occurs around when the 1W LMACD makes a Bullish Cross after its hits -0.21. We are still far from that. But what past Bear Cycles show is that when the 1W LMACD has hit the current level, Bitcoin takes at best the same amount of time to bottom as it did from the start of the Bear Cycle to the moment the LMACD hit the current level (blue Support). That was particularly the case during the previous (2022) Bear Cycle (was 27 weeks from High to LMACD contact, and another 27 weeks until the Cycle bottomed). The two Bear Cycles before it, bottomed in less time.
As a result, given that last week completed 17 weeks from the Cycle Top up until the LMACD contact, the Cycle could bottom in the next 17 weeks (based on that model). This suggests the first week of June 2026, while the 4-year Cycle suggests mid-September. So what do you think is more likely to happen? Could that be BTC's shortest Bear Cycle ever?
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) completed a more than -50% drop last week from its October 2025 All Time High (ATH) while stocks stayed close to their ATH. This chart shows that while BTC is obviously on a Bear Cycle, the S&P500 (SPX) illustrated by the blue trend-line, is still on Bull Cycle territory.
So why this huge divergence between BTC and stocks. Well looking at it historically, this is not uncommon. During the 2022 Bear Cycle, Bitcoin had to crash by more than -40 before the stock market started its own correction, while in 2018 Bitcoin again crashed by more than -50% before the SPX started a Bear Cycle.
This is very logical from a long-term investing standpoint as investors seek first to liquidate the massive profits on riskier assets like Bitcoin, add some remaining capital on stocks and then when the stock market shows signs of a long-term correction, withdraw their funds from there as well. This is usually when the USD takes off as they convert stocks to dollars and choose to weather out the storm primarily in cash (others might choose precious metals).
In any event, this analysis shows that since Bitcoin is already down by more than -50% from its historic High, we might be seeing a Bear Cycle starting on the S&P500 as well.
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📊 Bitcoin (BTC) Shows Strength Amid Market Volatility
Bitcoin continues to dominate the crypto market as price action remains highly active and traders stay focused on key levels. The market is currently moving with strong momentum, reflecting growing interest from both retail and institutional participants. 🏦📈

🔍 Current Market Overview
• BTC is trading near an important support and resistance zone, indicating a potential breakout or pullback scenario.
• Buyers are defending key support levels, showing confidence in the current trend.
• Volume remains stable, which suggests the market is preparing for a bigger move.
📈 Technical Insights
• Short-term trend: Bullish bias with consolidation
• RSI is hovering near neutral-to-bullish levels, signaling room for further upside.
• Moving averages are acting as dynamic support, keeping BTC above critical zones.
• A clean break above resistance could open doors for a strong bullish continuation 🚀

🌍 Market Sentiment
Overall sentiment remains optimistic as Bitcoin continues to hold above key psychological levels. Despite minor pullbacks, dips are being bought aggressively, which is a positive sign for trend continuation. Fear in the market is decreasing, while confidence is slowly building. 💪🟢
⚠️ What Traders Should Watch
• Breakout above resistance → Momentum rally possible 🔥
• Loss of support → Short-term correction before next move
• High volatility expected, so risk management is crucial 🎯
💡 Conclusion
Bitcoin remains the leader of the crypto market, and current price behavior suggests accumulation rather than distribution. Traders and investors should stay alert, watch confirmation signals, and avoid emotional decisions. The next major move could be decisive for the short-term trend. ⏳📊
📌 Trade smart. Manage risk. Follow the trend.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #BTCUSD 🚀💰